ZOiS Report 6/2020 State-society relations in Belarus have been tense for many years. The presidential elections in August 2020 and the mishandling of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic have proved to be the catalyst that brought these fragile relations to a complete breakdown. Over the years, the widening gap between a new generation of an emancipated citizenry and a regime stuck in predominantly paternalistic power structures and reluctant to engage in political and economic reforms has become increasingly evident. The deteriorating economy during the last decade and the perceived decline of the country’s social welfare system have been important factors in these developments. At the same time, the regime has continued to invest in its domestic security structures to a disproportionate extent compared with neighbouring states, allowing the so-called silovye struktury (“state power structures”) to gain influence at the highest level of state governance. (…)

Das Tandem Putin-Medwedew braucht für die Umsetzung seines Modernisierungsprogramms Unterstützung in der Gesellschaft. Da es bewusst auf eine Demokratisierung verzichtet, muss es Bündnispartnern unter den Eliten suchen. Doch die Elitenkonstellation ist intransparent. Eine Einteilung in »Liberale« und silowiki1 , in demokratische und autoritäre Kräfte, gibt die Konfl iktmuster nicht zutreff end wider. Auch eine Einteilung in Berufs- oder Standeskorporationen (Beamte, Geschäftsleute, Geheimdienstler) ist nur von begrenztem Wert. (…)