ZOiS Report 6/2020 State-society relations in Belarus have been tense for many years. The presidential elections in August 2020 and the mishandling of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic have proved to be the catalyst that brought these fragile relations to a complete breakdown. Over the years, the widening gap between a new generation of an emancipated citizenry and a regime stuck in predominantly paternalistic power structures and reluctant to engage in political and economic reforms has become increasingly evident. The deteriorating economy during the last decade and the perceived decline of the country’s social welfare system have been important factors in these developments. At the same time, the regime has continued to invest in its domestic security structures to a disproportionate extent compared with neighbouring states, allowing the so-called silovye struktury (“state power structures”) to gain influence at the highest level of state governance. (…)

Die Meinungsunterschiede russischer Politiker über die Haushaltsplanung werden mittlerweile ungewöhnlich offen ausgetragen. Sie spiegeln die gravierenden Differenzen zur zukünftigen Entwicklung wieder, die innerhalb der Elite bestehen. Die Befürworter einer schnellen Haushaltskonsolidierung glauben wenig an staatliche Intervention und favorisieren zudem grundlegende Reformen im staatlichen Rentensystem und bei der Kontrolle des Staates über Energieunternehmen. Solche Differenzen werden sich kaum in aller Stille lösen lassen.